Nigeria still dominates West Africa's international passenger market in raw numbers — the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority recorded 4.85 million international passenger movements in 2025 compared to Ghana's 2.72 million — but the trajectory tells a more worrying story. Ghana's Kotoka International Airport has grown approximately 60 per cent over the past decade, while Nigeria's international traffic has remained broadly static over the same period.
Aviation industry analysts are now raising a sharper question: not whether Nigeria is ahead today, but whether it is falling behind in the structural race that will determine which West African gateway captures the continent's rapidly growing aviation market over the next two decades.
The Revenue Structure That Suffocates Nigerian Airlines
Air Peace Chairman Allen Onyema has publicly disclosed that from a domestic airfare of approximately ₦350,000, barely ₦81,000 eventually reaches the airline after deductions. The remainder is consumed by Value Added Tax, NCAA charges, FAAN airport fees, NAMA navigational charges, pension obligations, industrial training fund contributions, National Social Insurance Trust Fund deductions, security levies, and numerous additional statutory payments.
Aviation analyst Olumide Ojikutu, who has studied the charge structure extensively, described Nigeria's aviation sector as one where virtually every government agency has established a financial claim on airline revenues. He warned that by late 2025, the NCAA was set to introduce additional charges that would bring the cumulative levy burden on international tickets to $31.50 — on top of fuel costs, ground handling, and overflying charges. "Nigeria's response to its airlines in crisis has, too often, been another levy, another charge, another administrative burden. There is no strategic aviation fund," Ojikutu said.
Why Passengers Are Choosing Accra
The competitive pressure from Accra is not primarily about pricing — it is about passenger experience. Industry sources confirm that travellers increasingly choose Kotoka International Airport because transfers are seamless, immigration is efficient, baggage systems function reliably, and security procedures are predictable. Even where Nigerian fares are lower, many regional travellers hesitate to use Nigeria as a transit point because of concerns about the ground experience.
Ojikutu warned that if this trend continues unaddressed, foreign airlines will route more traffic through Accra rather than Lagos, reducing FAAN's earnings from international airlines by as much as 80 per cent annually. For a FAAN that operates on a cost-recovery basis and depends heavily on international airline charges, that scenario would be financially devastating.
The Counter-Argument and the Path Forward
Not all analysts accept the most pessimistic reading. NCAA data confirms Nigeria's continued dominance in raw passenger volume, and the current ₦712 billion MMIA Terminal 1 rehabilitation — which introduces biometric processing, dedicated transit zones, and a redesigned passenger flow — directly addresses many of the infrastructure criticisms. The MMIA overhaul, if delivered on time and to specification, would fundamentally change the competitive calculus.
The resolution of the MMA2 concession dispute, announced by FAAN Managing Director Olubunmi Kuku at the Lomé Convention in June 2026, also signals a more investor-friendly regulatory posture that could attract the private capital needed to accelerate airport development beyond what public funding alone can deliver.
The question is whether these structural reforms — which are real and significant — will happen fast enough to prevent transit traffic patterns from hardening in Ghana's favour before Nigeria's new terminal and hub infrastructure is fully operational.
